WHO WILL WIN: Best Actress

[with_one_voice]

Glenn Close
Albert Nobbs



Viola Davis
The Help



Rooney Mara
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo



Meryl Streep
The Iron Lady



Michelle Williams
My Week with Marilyn

[City Lights]

Obviously between Davis and Streep. I'll just go with Streep just to be like Dirk and obnoxiously rub it in y'alls faces if it actually happens.

[jjj]

I wasn't alive in 1982, so for those with perspective, for which race was/is Streep seemingly closer to an Oscar: French Lieutenant's Woman or Iron Lady? Both got Bafta, Globe Drama, and NY or LA. Of course, Davis's big awards didn't actually exist back then so it's kinda hard to compare.

[Blasty]

I wasn't alive in 1982, so for those with perspective, for which race was/is Streep seemingly closer to an Oscar: French Lieutenant's Woman or Iron Lady? Both got Bafta, Globe Drama, and NY or LA. Of course, Davis's big awards didn't actually exist back then so it's kinda hard to compare.

It's hard to say but On Golden Pond was VERY popular with both the Academy and at the box office that year, it got like 10 nominations I think , and the Globes always detested Hepburn (nary a single award in her entire career) so that Globes result obviously had to be thrown out. People may not have been predicting Hepburn of course - I mean, who wins 4 Oscars and especially for that fussy performance? But sentiment was a much bigger force back then with the Academy, and Streep had just won 2 years earlier and I'm sure the Academy thought this critics favorite probably would have more opportunities to be rewarded in more liked films than The French Liet's Woman, so they gave it to Hepburn. And it may not have even been close - if SAG had existed, Hepburn would almost assuredly have won for her legendary status and for being in the big box office hit.

So, anyway, I don't think Streep was all that close that year. But she was probably the runner-up.

[riczhang]

I wasn't alive in 1982, so for those with perspective, for which race was/is Streep seemingly closer to an Oscar: French Lieutenant's Woman or Iron Lady? Both got Bafta, Globe Drama, and NY or LA. Of course, Davis's big awards didn't actually exist back then so it's kinda hard to compare.

Streep only got the BAFTA that year because Hepburn's film was ineligible until the next ceremony, and won(thought Sophie's choice wasn't eligible there either, and was nominated the next year loosing to Julie Walters in Educating Rita.)

I personally think if Hepburn was nommed in 1982 then Streep wouldn't have won a BAFTA that year, so I'd say this year is closer for Streep.

[kissfromarose]

Legend Mara will win after Streep and Davis split their votes.

[Streeper]

There'll be a few surprises this year. One of them will be Streep over Davis.

[with_one_voice]

I'd hardly call Streep winning a "surprise" (even though Davis appears to be the favorite, according to the poll) -- she won GG + BAFTA. Close, Mara, or Williams winning would be a surprise.

[harley2007]

Davis will win. Streep, as beloved as she is, is not winning for playing Thatcher.

[Streeper]

I'd hardly call Streep winning a "surprise" (even though Davis appears to be the favorite, according to the poll) -- she won GG + BAFTA. Close, Mara, or Williams winning would be a surprise.

Yeah I thought of putting the quotes around surprise too, because statistically speaking it wound't be a surprise, you're right.

I was thinking more about AD and how the bashers of the film/Streep/Streep's fans are just dying to see Viola win. I think it would be a legitimate surprise to them.

[with_one_voice]

Well, the Viola supporters really aren't that crazy (as, say, the Streep supporters are), so I do think they can see clearly that this is a very tight race, that it's the closest Meryl has been to winning an Oscar in over two decades, and that she may win. So, a surprise: not really; a nightmare: maybe so.

[guany]

OMG. The funniest thing about Meryl's BAFTA win wasn't her shoe coming off, but how she threw her clutch at Shailene Woodley! Did no one else notice that?

[Streeper]

OMG. The funniest thing about Meryl's BAFTA win wasn't her shoe coming off, but how she threw her clutch at Shailene Woodley! Did no one else notice that?

Yea that was awesome

Well, the Viola supporters really aren't that crazy (as, say, the Streep supporters are), so I do think they can see clearly that this is a very tight race, that it's the closest Meryl has been to winning an Oscar in over two decades, and that she may win. So, a surprise: not really; a nightmare: maybe so.

It's not the Viola supporters that are crazy, it's the people who time and time again post random things like how happy they will be to see Streep lose on Oscar night, how Streep fans suck and are crazy or whatever (they just tend to be Viola supporters by default I guess). And like what you said there that I bolded...it's strange that such a strong performance winning would disappoint so many people only because they didn't like the movie as a whole.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

No, it'd piss me off because Streep has two Oscars. Does...does she REALLY need another?
Anyway, Davis is winning. Even Streep would rather Davis win. Davis hasn't made one false move campaigning, and it'll help that a lot of Oscar voters like the film. And SAG trumps Globe and BAFTA, by a wide margin.

[with_one_voice]

Yea that was awesome




It's not the Viola supporters that are crazy, it's the people who time and time again post random things like how happy they will be to see Streep lose on Oscar night, how Streep fans suck and are crazy or whatever (they just tend to be Viola supporters by default I guess). And like what you said there that I bolded...it's strange that such a strong performance winning would disappoint so many people only because they didn't like the movie as a whole.

Well I was of course exaggerating with "nightmare", but since the Oscars are sort of the whole premise of this forum, and Best Actress is always the most anticipated race, then when someone's favorite loses - especially to a performance that they think is mediocre, which I'd say most ADers (Viola supporters or otherwise) do think of Streep's perf - then yeah, you're gonna get craziness. Plus, it's the Internet, so what do you expect? People can act completely insane and different from the way they carry themselves in their normal lives under the cloak of anonymity.

[Streeper]

Well I was of course exaggerating with "nightmare", but since the Oscars are sort of the whole premise of this forum, and Best Actress is always the most anticipated race, then when someone's favorite loses - especially to a performance that they think is mediocre, which I'd say most ADers (Viola supporters or otherwise) do think of Streep's perf - then yeah, you're gonna get craziness. Plus, it's the Internet, so what do you expect? People can act completely insane and different from the way they carry themselves in their normal lives under the cloak of anonymity.

This is true. But the only thing is, the Oscars didn't start yet, no one's favorite lost yet and the craziness has already begun.

But that last part you say is always underestimated and true to the tee.

[Aurelius]

Yeah I thought of putting the quotes around surprise too, because statistically speaking it wound't be a surprise, you're right.

I was thinking more about AD and how the bashers of the film/Streep/Streep's fans are just dying to see Viola win. I think it would be a legitimate surprise to them.

I'm actually dying to see them announce, "And the Oscar goes to... you know what? Let's skip this category this year."

[Solopop]

Close, I honestly see her taking it if it doesn't go to Davis but deffo not Streep.

[with_one_voice]

These poll results are surprising thus far (72.5% Davis, 22.5% Streep) and don't seem to correlate with how close this race looks to be. Even though I voted for Davis, I'm surprised that more people don't seem to think Streep will win.

[Moviefreak]

Meryl Streep.