I'm going to try 2010
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours
Duvall probably gets in on the strength of his SAG nod over Gosling, to my eternal frustration. The battle for the win would be between Eisenberg and Franco, with the greater bait of the latter beating out the fact that without The King's Speech around The Social Network easily wins BP.
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Julianne Moore was very clearly in sixth place, so she gets in sixth. Bening easily wins. Yawn.
Best Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Not sure at all who gets in the second open spot alongside the obvious Garfield. Conviction completely died, but I don't see any real options besides Rockwell. The only other people with precursors were Michael Douglas at the Globes and Pete Postlethwaite at the BAFTAs, who seem like total non-contenders. Maybe Timberlake actually gets precursor support with some open spots and a stronger Social Network? Matt Damon gets something going for True Grit? As for the winner, I'm equally stumped. Renner showed up everywhere and was playing the villain in a popular action movie, so him?
Dale Dickey, Winter's Bone
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer
This one is super hard. Three open spots, and two of the likeliest alternatives (The Black Swan ladies) ineligible. I'd say Lesley Manville gets a spot, that one is easy. Dale Dickey had some support for Winter's Bone, so maybe she pops at SAG with Hawkes and rides that in. Maybe Olivia Williams for the last spot gets more support from the critics and the British bloc? I'll say her because I can't really think of anyone else. Steinfeld is the clear winner here, though.