WHAT IF? Losers Only Oscars: 1993, 1994, 1995

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Well, I think that if Shannon would have gained traction for Take Shelter (or even taken the last spot at the Oscars) then Chastain would have been dragged along for the same film instead of getting in for The Tree of Life.

I suppose that would be right.

I'm going to try 2010

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours

Duvall probably gets in on the strength of his SAG nod over Gosling, to my eternal frustration. The battle for the win would be between Eisenberg and Franco, with the greater bait of the latter beating out the fact that without The King's Speech around The Social Network easily wins BP.

Best Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Julianne Moore was very clearly in sixth place, so she gets in sixth. Bening easily wins. Yawn.

Best Supporting Actor

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
?

Not sure at all who gets in the second open spot alongside the obvious Garfield. Conviction completely died, but I don't see any real options besides Rockwell. The only other people with precursors were Michael Douglas at the Globes and Pete Postlethwaite at the BAFTAs, who seem like total non-contenders. Maybe Timberlake actually gets precursor support with some open spots and a stronger Social Network? Matt Damon gets something going for True Grit? As for the winner, I'm equally stumped. Renner showed up everywhere and was playing the villain in a popular action movie, so him?

Supporting Actress

Dale Dickey, Winter's Bone
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Olivia Williams, The Ghost Writer

This one is super hard. Three open spots, and two of the likeliest alternatives (The Black Swan ladies) ineligible. I'd say Lesley Manville gets a spot, that one is easy. Dale Dickey had some support for Winter's Bone, so maybe she pops at SAG with Hawkes and rides that in. Maybe Olivia Williams for the last spot gets more support from the critics and the British bloc? I'll say her because I can't really think of anyone else. Steinfeld is the clear winner here, though.

[Zuranthium]

This thread is such a weird premise.

I completely disagree with 3/4th's of dlong's assessment of 2011. I think you're correct about Best Actress, but that's it. The rest is not what would have happened, at all.

Clooney was obviously going to win Best Actor if it weren't for The Artist coming in so strong. His role was stronger, people liked the film more, and he is seen as more due for Best Actor than Brad Pitt is. I think the last nominee would have been Michael Shannon, not DiCaprio. The latter's film was a flop in every regard and people weren't putting him on top of their ballot.

In supporting actor, Albert Brooks absolutely would NOT have won. LMAO. Branagh, Nolte, and Sydow all would have won before Brooks (that probably would have been quite an interesting three-way race, actually!). Drive was not "huge last year" as you claim. It got one nomination from the Academy. For sound editing. They didn't care for that film, plain and simple. Brooks might not have even been nominated still. People just don't love him and that performance was overrated to begin with. PSH possibly could have gotten the nom for The Ides of March over Brooks. That's what happened at BAFTA, and that group even liked Drive a lot more than the Academy.

In supporting actress, Jessica Chastain would have been nominated for Take Shelter and she would have won the category. Marion Cotillard would have been a threat for a nomination in Midnight in Paris, but it's really impossible to tell how that last slot would have gone.

[dlong5665]

Can you honestly assess anything without being a snobby little pretentious brat? Get over yourself.

[Zuranthium]

You might want to learn what some of those adjectives mean before throwing them around in frustration because someone brought up valid points. I'm done talking to you.

[dlong5665]

I'm well aware what the adjectives I used mean. You came in here and straight up said that what I posted wouldn't have happened and then stated your opinion on the matter as fact. Holding one's opinion over others is, guess what, being pretentious. You've been doing this exact thing ever since I joined this site and it's been awful the last few weeks. From your wacko behavior in the Meryl Streep mafia to criticizing Submerge's Gold Rush system, something you don't even participate in, as wrong. I said the other day you don't deserve to be called a cunt, because you don't, but a brat? That's something you excel at.

[Zuranthium]

I didn't state my opinion as fact. Please learn to read. I will say Albert Brooks absolutely would not have come anywhere close to winning, though. That one is indeed a fact, under any possible sane means of thinking and understanding of the Oscars (not that you bothered to pay attention to the reasoning). As for mafia and gold rush, it seems you still don't understand the correct game theory and factual mathematics behind what I said. Oh well. In the future, though, it would really help if you stopped using these negative labels and started actually responding to my points. You haven't made a single argument with regards to what I wrote and I didn't call you a single name, but you have continued to trash-talk me.

[CateBlanchett4eva]

I didn't state my opinion as fact. Please learn to read. I will say Albert Brooks absolutely would not have come anywhere close to winning, though. That one is indeed a fact, .

that is a contradiction right there!!! but also remember how marcia gay harden won the oscar but one nothing else or was even nominated nowhere else and everyone was really shocked? well what if she didnt win but just came second and then people like you saying "she absolutely would not have come anywhere close to winning" would be wrong!!! so i think the fact is that you dont know who would come close to winning and that is the only fact so just remember whats a personal opinion and what is a fact and the fact is that you dont know who would come close to winning an oscar

[Souler]

I'm going to try 2010

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
James Franco, 127 Hours

Duvall probably gets in on the strength of his SAG nod over Gosling, to my eternal frustration. The battle for the win would be between Eisenberg and Franco, with the greater bait of the latter beating out the fact that without The King's Speech around The Social Network easily wins BP.

I do agree, but here's where a problem with these hypothetical scenarios come in: do we look at each year in a vacuum or not? Cause if we extend the game to 2009, Bridges doesn't win there, and then he surely wins here.

Should we continue this series for 1996 onwards? pux would've done so hadn't he left. I could open a thread if people are interested (or we could start from the present and go back).

[Souler]

btw, for 2011 Supporting Actor I could see a scenario like 1997 where it's between two veterans, Brooks sweeps most of the precursors a la Reynolds, but Nolte's is a performance in a film that ultimately appeals a little more to them and he takes the Oscar with only a SAG win beforehand.

[guany]

Should we continue this series for 1996 onwards? pux would've done so hadn't he left. I could open a thread if people are interested (or we could start from the present and go back).

Do it.

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Yes!

[Donezo]

Continuing this because I'm bored:

1995

Best Actor

McKellen easily gets into one of the open spots, and for the other I'm going to say Tom Hanks, in this reality he hasn't won yet, remember, and he was the lead of a popular BP nominee at the height of his stardom. Troisi wins without Cage or Penn's powerhouse performances around, with Hanks as the spoiler.

Best Actress

Kidman is an obvious choice for one of the two open spots, and for the other I'm going to go JJL, with her strong critical support and Winningham's unexpected nod. If we're going by the 90-92 version of this game then Thompson hasn't won an Oscar yet, and so she easily wins for Sense and Sensibility. Stone's Globe win seems like a fluke and it doesn't seem like a third win was yet considered Meryl's divine right like it would later on.

Best Supporting Actor

I know Spacey still had a lot of movies out that year, but I'm feeling like Cheadle might have actually been the 5th nominee ahead of Spacey for Se7en, he had a SAG nod and won the major critics that Spacey didn't win (LA and NSFC). A dark horse would be Alan Rickman, given the strong support for Sense and Sensibility among the actor's branch. Ed Harris would have been the winner, easy.

Best Supporting Actress

Huston is an easy plug-in to the fifth spot, and the battle for the win would have been between Joan Allen and Winslet. Winslet had the SAG win, but apparently that was a fluke, and Allen would have likely swept the critics without Sorvino and ridden that momentum to a win.

You're probably right about Actress and Supporting Actor. For Actor, I think it almost certainly would have been John Travolta for Get Shorty rather than Hanks for Apollo 13. Travolta was in the conversation for the win heading into the Oscar nominations and it was a really surprising snub. I think Winslet would have been the winner in Supporting Actress despite the critical support for Allen. Nixon was just not well-liked enough.

[guany]

If Winslet had won for Sense and Sensibility, would Streep have won for Doubt? And Davis for The Help?

Damn you, Mira Sorvino!

[Souler]

Do it.

Aight. '96, '97, '98 coming up.

E: oh, this is in polls, so if mods allow, lol.

[Donezo]

If Winslet had won for Sense and Sensibility, would Streep have won for Doubt? And Davis for The Help?

Damn you, Mira Sorvino!

Poor Kate just couldn't win when it was the Year of the Hooker with Elisabeth Shue and Sharon Stone up for playing prostitutes as well. Ironically, Susan Sarandon prevailed for playing a nun.