Best Director: David Fincher Was a Hero to Most, but He Never Meant Shit to Me

[Habsburg]

I've read the screenplay for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. With all of the fantasy sequences it will be hard, but if Daldry nails it, he'll win Best Director. He's 3/3 with the Directing branch (and 2/3 with Best Picture) so let's not fool ourselves that there isn't love for him in the Academy. The last 30 minutes, in particular, are going to make practically every person in the audience cry. The very last scene? Wow.

The script is great, and if the film lives up to expectations, the combination of it being Daldry's fourth nomination as well as it coming out on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 will make it near impossible for it to lose Best Picture, Spielberg be damned.

He made we weep like a baby at the end of The Reader.

[Markku Palo]

Spielberg won't win a third.

Not for a horse movie, no.

Daldry, Payne, Spielberg, Hazanavicius, Clooney.

[guany]

So I just went back to 2002, looking at stats for the ratio of previous winners : previous nominees: new comers, as well as the studios behind the films.

First thing I noticed is that every year save '07 and '02 had only 1 previous winner ('07 and '02 had none). So, pick one from Spielberg, Allen, Eastwood, and Scorsese.

There were no more than 3 previous nominees in any of the years (no fewer than 1, but it was 2 in five of the nine years). So that's Daldry, Fincher, Malick, Payne, Miller, and Clooney. Pick 2?

As for newcomers, there was always at least 2 (twice there were 3, and once 4). That should bode well for Hazanavicus and Cronenberg, especially.

As for distributers, Miramax was king with 8 (Coens '07, Anderson, Schnabel, Frears, Scorsese '04, Meirelles, Scorsese '02, and Marshall), but they're dead, so . Next was Paramount with 7 (Coens '10, Russell, Reitman '09, Fincher '08, Inarritu, Eastwood '06, Daldry '02), so look at Daldry and Scorsese. Then, WB with 5 (Gilroy, Scorsese '06, Clooney, Eastwood '04, Eastwood '03), so keep that in mind for Daldry again (EL+IC is a joint distribution between Paramount and WB) and Eastwood.

Both Focus and Fox Searchlight had 4 (van Sant, Lee, Coppola, Polanski; Aronofsky, Boyle, Reitman '07, Payne), so that would cover Malick and Payne.

Weinstein had 3 in the last three years (so, one for every year that his new company has existed: Hooper, Tarantino, Daldry '08). His strongest contender this year is Hazanavicius. Universal also had 3, but they have nothing serious this year. All of the other studios only had 1 or 2.

So.... being a total nerd and all, I would say that Cronenberg, Daldry, Hazanavicius, and Spielberg would be a good starting point. After that, a previous nominee would be ideal. I'm leaning towards Malick or Payne (who both have Fox Searchlight backing them), or Fincher, who has Columbia for the second year in a row. I kind of feel like Fincher is the best bet considering the subject matter and the box office potential (it kind of feels like another True Grit, Inglourious Basterds, or The Departed).

I'm going with:

David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Brothers; Paramount)
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Columbia)
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (The Weinstein Company)
Steven Spielberg, War Horse (Disney)

[Dooby]

I think you should consider adding Angelina Jolie to the next round for her directorial debut...

He's seen it!! But his lips are sealed.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

I agree on Cronenberg and Spielberg, although with grave misgivings on both (both films had TERRIBLE trailers), but I sub in Alfredson, Clooney, and uh...Malick I guess. Although I'll admit I'm heavily biased against Daldry's film, and J. Edgar. Hazanavicius is entirely possible, but totally dependent on The Artist catching on as at least a minor box office success and getting the campaign it needs from the Weinsteins. I mean, we say Weinstein=nod, but they usually choose to push one film more than any other, and sometimes give others (that might deserve and need much more) a puny push. I mean, what the fuck was with A Single Man only getting one nomination?
There's factors working both for and against Fincher, the largest being the problem of being a remake, and a really blatant one at that. Fortunately, the original is not that good, but it's still an issue. He's a contender if the film manages to differentiate itself from the original and justify its own existence.

[Narendra]

Stephen Daldry
David Fincher
Michel Hazanavicius
Madonna
Steven Spielberg

Madonna wins, creating shock and chaos in Hollywood ==> W.E. ends up grossing $500m ==>her new album sells over 10m copies ==> her world tour grosses over $700m




(how funny would that be, Madonna and Fincher nominated in the same category )

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

*puts Narendra on ignore*

[Ben7]

Wow guany, that's very interesting. Going by those stats alone, these are my predictions:

(I'm torn between Daldry and Malick. I wanted to choose one or the other, and ultimately went with Daldry.)

David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Madonna, W.E.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

Madonna is not being nominated. I'm not saying this to be a confrontational asshole, I'm stating fact. Nowhere outside of AD thinks much of her chances.

[guany]

Madonna is not being nominated. I'm not saying this to be a confrontational asshole, I'm stating fact. Nowhere outside of AD thinks much of her chances.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF7rCv6ch7M"]‪Madonna - Hung Up (official Video)‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]

[Ben7]

Madonna is not being nominated. I'm not saying this to be a confrontational asshole, I'm stating fact. Nowhere outside of AD thinks much of her chances.

In my predictions I wanted to be realistic and include a Weinstein film. I figure it be one of the following: Hazanavicius, Lloyd, or Madonna. I went with Madonna.

[Narendra]

Madonna is not being nominated. I'm not saying this to be a confrontational asshole, I'm stating fact. Nowhere outside of AD thinks much of her chances.

I know, I know, I was just making fun.

[OscarsFan 2.3]

I honestly don't think Malick's out of the running for the nomination just yet.

His movie did get the big award from a jury that consists of a decent number of Academy voters and this is the kind of movie that could be recognized by the directors’ branch for its ambitiousness in storytelling and craft (of course, I think that was the same thing many said about Christopher Nolan when The Dark Knight/Inception were released).

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVUXDn6hCY4"]‪The Tree of Life (2011) Featurette with Christopher Nolan & David Fincher‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]

Stephen Diablo-dry
David Fincher
Terrence Malick
Steven Spielberg

Fifth spot will go to Eastwood/Hazanavicius/Payne

Again, I would love to see Cronenberg get nominated, but again, I get the Burton/Nolan vibe from him

[OscarsFan 2.3]

He made we weep like a baby at the end of The Reader.

I know, that ghastly old Kate makeup would make anyone cry from its cringe inducing-ness. ;-D

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

In my predictions I wanted to be realistic and include a Weinstein film. I figure it be one of the following: Hazanavicius, Lloyd, or Madonna. I went with Madonna.

Hazanavicius is far more likely, so that...wasn't a realistic choice.

[Dreambig]

Clooney
Cronenberg
Daltry
Fincher
Madonna

These films have not been reviewed so who knows.
Have a better prediction after Festivals.

[Howard Beale's Toothpaste]

[Atonenent.]

Yeah there's nothing I want more than W.E. being good, but Madonna won't even come near to being in contention for a nod, come on... For her, the biggest success will be if the critics agree she's not the worst director ever.

[Ben7]

Hazanavicius is far more likely, so that...wasn't a realistic choice.

Yea, in my mind I eliminated Lloyd because it just didn't seem likely and I was stuck between Hazanavicius and Madonna. I ultimately went with Madonna for a couple reasons:

1. Her film is receiving positive buzz and as a director, she seems to have made at least a couple good choices so far - in casting, costumes, and possibly with sound and cinematography (?)

2. As another posted pointed out in another thread, she seems to be respected within the industry. And, I've noticed that since 2004, Madonna has flown out to LA to either attend or throw a party on Oscar night. She's been a presence the past 8 Oscar nights. I'm thinking that she's probably spent a lot of that time mingling with and chatting it up with potential Academy voters. That might not really mean anything, but when making my predictions, I was thinking that maybe she has in fact built up some respect within the industry.

[Dreambig]

Yeah there's nothing I want more than W.E. being good, but Madonna won't even come near to being in contention for a nod, come on... For her, the biggest success will be if the critics agree she's not the worst director ever.

I understand where you're coming from based on her track record in films but at this point of time- who knows.