New rule: Which year(s) would still have had 5 nominees?

[with_one_voice]

It’s nutty to think Walk the Line wouldn’t have made it:

1- It had PGA, Golden Globe and BFCA noms for Best Picture

2- I’m not sure of this but someone mentioned it in its year: it was the first film to be snubbed from BP with 2 lead acting noms and an editing nom, since The African Queen in 1951.

3- It was 82% fresh at RT and was beloved by audiences (it’s still 7.9 at IMDb)

4- It had 5 noms including 2 big, with BP it would have been 6. Tech people loved it too.

Really, it’s a no-brainer. It would have been a Top 5 nominee in many other years. It was an Oscar film from head to toes.

Yeah, it really seems like Walk the Line would've made it in. Hmm.

What's your rationale for 2001? Looking over that year, I don't necessarily disagree with you, though we had two lone director nominees (Black Hawk Down and Mulholland Dr). I think BHD, in particular, would've had a good shot at getting in with the 5% rule.

[MrJeffery]

This discussion has been revived.

Which year do you all think would've had 5 nominees?

I think 2005 or 2008, the two years in which a lone director nominee did not exist. I think with this current system, if there were enough directors voting for a lone director, like Mereilles or Almodovar, those voters would've helped push that director's film to 5% and a BP nominee, too. This isn't a perfect method, but I'm not sure how else to guesstimate.

That said, Walk the Line seems like it would've been pretty likely in 2005.

yea. for me, i don't really see a year where i don't think there would have been only 5 nominees. in '08, i wouldn't have been surprised by the inclusion of The Dark Knight, Wall-E, or The Wrestler.

[McTeague]

Yeah, it really seems like Walk the Line would've made it in. Hmm.

What's your rationale for 2001? Looking over that year, I don't necessarily disagree with you, though we had two lone director nominees (Black Hawk Down and Mulholland Dr). I think BHD, in particular, would've had a good shot at getting in with the 5% rule.

Yeah I'm kinda sure MD wouldn't have made it, but I agree BHD is hard to say. But I lean towards “No”. I mean, we know there has to be one yar of no other nominees beyond the Top 5, and I think BHD is clearly a lesser competitor than Walk the Line and The Dark Knight Rises.

Yeah, it had a Directors Guild nod, but it just goes to show it was a director’s thing alone. It didn’t have a SAG nod, it didn’t have Globe nods, it didn’t have BAFTA nod (and Scott is British), it didn’t have Producers nod… The industry didn’t really back it, it seems it was just something the directors admired for the directorial and technical endeavour, not something with widespread love.

Of course it would have only needed a 5% of #1 votes, and it must have had support if it got that director nom, but we don’t really know how it got it (it may have been with tons of #2 placements which are still very important in the rest of the categories, it may have been with #! Votes after the other 4 nominees shared the other some 500 votes, etc.) and I’d say this is clearly our weakest likely #6.

2001: Black Hawk Down
2002: Talk to Her had a really big win over a BP nominee and was riding a wave of popularity
2003: I don’t think anybody can doubt Cold Mountain, City of God and In America
2004: Yeah Vera Drake and ESOTSM were in.
2005: Walk the Line, but I also think Constant Gardener could have been in
2006: Dreamgirls easily, United 93 maybe
2007: Diving Bell easily, Into the Wild maybe
2008: The Dark Knight

I guess 2002 is another candidate since AMPAS clearly didn’t love Far from Heaven much and Talk to Her is a really small foreign film, but its win over Gangs is indicative of widespread support as a film among AMPAS, whereas BHD tech wins don’t imply love as a film.

I also have doubts with 2007, as TDBATB is also foreign and it instead had no wins, but 4 nods including director, screenplay and editing is just too big, no? I’d say it’s between 2001 and 2007, come to think of it.

[Moviefreak]

I think Adaptation was clearly 6th in 2002. PGA, SAG, WGA nominations as well as 3 acting nods. Plus GG nominations for Picture and Director.

[McTeague]

I think Adaptation was clearly 6th in 2002. PGA, SAG, WGA nominations as well as 3 acting nods. Plus GG nominations for Picture and Director.

Oh, true. I keep forgetting how big that film was in its day.

Then I'm even more confident that our "Only 5 nominees" year is 2001 or 2007.

[DirkDiggler]

I was just going to mention Adaptation GRRRRRRR

[Rage Colored Glasses]

Into The Wild would not have made it in, that movie underperformed very badly (missed out on Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing, Adapted Screenplay and Original Song).

[Thomas]

I think Into the Wild was a bit like The Station Agent. A movie that AMPAS just did not buy into as much as other awards bodies.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

2000: Almost Famous and Billy Elliott would have easily made it.
2001: Black Hawk Down would have likely made it. Possibly Mulholland Drive.
2002: Talk to Her and Adaptation
2003: Cold Mountain, City of God and In America. Possibly Finding Nemo.
2004: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake and Eternal Sunshine. Possibly Finding Nemo
2005: Walk the Line
2006: Dreamgirls. Possibly United 93.
2007: Diving Bell and the Butterfly easily. Possibly Ratatouille.
2008. Definitely WALL*E and The Dark Knight. Doubt and The Wrestler were also likely

[McTeague]

2000: Almost Famous and Billy Elliott would have easily made it.
2001: Black Hawk Down would have likely made it. Possibly Mulholland Drive.
2002: Talk to Her and Adaptation
2003: Cold Mountain, City of God and In America. Possibly Finding Nemo.
2004: Hotel Rwanda, Vera Drake and Eternal Sunshine. Possibly Finding Nemo
2005: Walk the Line
2006: Dreamgirls. Possibly United 93.
2007: Diving Bell and the Butterfly easily. Possibly Ratatouille.
2008. Definitely WALL*E and The Dark Knight. Doubt and The Wrestler were also likely

You however need to choose a year that only had 5 nominees, so one of your "easily" has to go.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

Basically, I was saying none of them would have had just 5. 2005 being the likeliest, since I only listed Walk the Line but even then, I couldn't see it missing with the current rules.

I dunno, maybe 2001

[McTeague]

Basically, I was saying none of them would have had just 5. 2005 being the likeliest, since I only listed Walk the Line but even then, I couldn't see it missing with the current rules.

I dunno, maybe 2001

But the point of the thread is that, when the new rule was announced, AMPAS said that they had re-counted the results of the last years since 2001 and they had one year of 5 nominees and one year of 9 nominees, with the rest in between. We know there was one year of just 5 nominees. I also think it would have been 2001. No way 2005, because Walk the Line was so in.

[hurricanesmith]

My guess is the answer would be 2008, only we wouldn't have had the nominees we actually got. At least Dark Knight and possibly Wall-E as well would have swapped in for Reader or Frost/Nixon.

HS

[Mr. Film Awards]

Also, had the rule been introduced in the 90s, here's which films I think would have made the cut along with the five nominated:

1990: 'Reversal of Fortune', ''The Grifters'
1991: 'Boyz N The Hood', 'Thelma and Louise', 'Terminator 2: Judgement Day' (maybe), 'The Fisher King', 'Raise the Red Lantern'
1992: 'The Player'
1993: 'Farewell My Concubine', 'Philadelphia', 'The Age of Innocence'
1994: 'Red', 'Bullets over Broadway', 'The Lion King'
1995: 'The Usual Suspects', 'Toy Story', 'Dead Man Walking', 'Leaving Las Vegas'
1996: 'The People vs. Larry Flynt', 'Sling Blade', 'Hamlet'
1997: 'Boogie Nights', 'The Sweet Hereafter'
1998: 'The Truman Show', 'Gods and Monsters'
1999: 'All About My Mother', 'Being John Malkovich', 'Magnolia', 'Topsy-Turvy'

Your thoughts?

[Atonenent.]

Umm, I love Raise the Red Lantern and Farewell My Concubine but they certainly wouldn't have made it. The rest seems plausible.

[McTeague]

1999:
For sure:
1- Being John Malkovich
2- The Talented Mr. Ripley

Maybe:
3- All About My Mother
4- Topsy Turvy
5- Magnolia
6- The Hurricane
7- Boys Don’t Cry

1998:
For sure: Nothing

Maybe:
1- The Truman Show
2- Gods and Monsters

1997:

For sure:
1- Amistad
2- Boogie Nights

Maybe:
3- The Wings of the Dove
4- The Sweet Hereafter

1996:

For sure: Nothing

Maybe:
1- Sling Blade

1995:
For sure:
1- Leaving Las vegas
2- Dead Man Walking

Maybe:
3- The Usual Suspects
4- Nixon

1994:
For sure:
1- Bullets Over Broadway
2- The Madness of King George

Maybe:
3- Three Colors: Red

1993:
For sure:
- Nothing

Maybe:
1- The Age of Innocence

1992:
For sure:
1- The Player

1991:
For sure:
1- Thelma & Louise
2- The Fisher King

Maybe:
3- Boys ‘n the Hood
4- Fried Green Tomatoes

1990:
For sure:
1- Reversal of Fortune
2- The Grifters

Maybe:
3- Cyrano de Bergerac

[CMJ]

I think Road to Perdition was pretty close to getting in in 2002 (probably not as close as Adaptation though). I know the only major nod it scored was Newman, but I seem to recall hearing quite a bit of last minute buzz for it the week or so before nomination. And they ran a helluva campaign for it here in LA.

[Jali]

2000 8 nominees (Almost famous - Billy Elliot - Wonder boys)

2001 7 nominees (Black Hawk down, Amelie)

2002 6 nominees (Road to Perdition)

2003 7 nominees (Cold Mountain, City of god)

2004 7 nominees (Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda)

2005 7 nominees (The constant gardener, Walk the line)

2006 8 nominees (Pan's labyrinth, Dreamgirls, United 93)

2007 6 nominees (The diving bell and the butterfly)

2008 7 nominees (The dark knight Wall·E)

2009 7 nominees (Up in the air, Precious, Inglorius basterds, The hurt locker, Avatar, Up, An education)

2010 7 nominees (The king's speech, True grit, The social network, Inception, The fighter, 127 hours, Black swan)

[with_one_voice]

2000 8 nominees (Almost famous - Billy Elliot - Wonder boys)

2001 7 nominees (Black Hawk down, Amelie)

2002 6 nominees (Road to Perdition)

2003 7 nominees (Cold Mountain, City of god)

2004 7 nominees (Vera Drake, Hotel Rwanda)

2005 7 nominees (The constant gardener, Walk the line)

2006 8 nominees (Pan's labyrinth, Dreamgirls, United 93)

2007 6 nominees (The diving bell and the butterfly)

2008 7 nominees (The dark knight Wall·E)

2009 7 nominees (Up in the air, Precious, Inglorius basterds, The hurt locker, Avatar, Up, An education)

2010 7 nominees (The king's speech, True grit, The social network, Inception, The fighter, 127 hours, Black swan)

At least one of the years from 2001-2008 would've had five nominees.

[Eduardo Zuckerberg]

1999:


1994:
For sure:
1- Bullets Over Broadway
2- The Madness of King George

Maybe:
3- Three Colors: Red

Hmmm. I think The Lion King would have had at least a fighting chance no?